Quick summary
The 2026 Atlantic mackerel season has begun under severe pressure from lower quotas, fragmented international agreements and resistance to record-high prices. Early catches are small and feed-heavy, limiting demand for WR fish, while HG production remains commercially difficult. Asia is competing for premium autumn fish, while Africa, Europe and canners increasingly turn to alternatives. Carryover stocks and possible further quota cuts add uncertainty. SeaChef helps buyers secure the right fish for each market.
Season starts with two opposing pressures
The 2026 Atlantic mackerel season has opened with exceptional uncertainty. Quotas are sharply lower, but importing markets are increasingly unwilling to continue paying the extremely high prices established in 2025 and early 2026.
The first-half figures show that shortage and demand resistance now exist at the same time. Norway exported 38,344 tonnes of mackerel in the first half of 2026, down 51% by volume and 21% by value year on year. Japanese supermarket chains reported volume declines of 20–50%. The Norwegian Seafood Council said current prices are being driven mainly by competition for scarce raw material, rather than rising end-market demand. The question is no longer only whether enough fish will be available, but whether buyers and consumers can absorb the replacement cost.
Supply side: reduced quotas and an incomplete agreement
ICES advised that 2026 catches of Northeast Atlantic mackerel should not exceed 174,357 tonnes, approximately 70% below its 2025 advice. The United Kingdom, Norway, the Faroe Islands and Iceland instead agreed on a reference total allowable catch of 299,010 tonnes. This is a large year-on-year reduction, but it is still approximately 71% above the ICES headline advice.
After bilateral transfers, the four-party net shares are 30.55% for the UK, 26.40% for Norway, 12.00% for the Faroe Islands and 10.50% for Iceland. The parties also acknowledged that all six coastal states had not reached a comprehensive, long-term sharing agreement. In commercial terms, the reference TAC is therefore not yet functioning as a fully coordinated ceiling.
The EU initially maintained a provisional position aligned with ICES advice, but Council documentation in March moved its 2026 framework to the 299,010-tonne reference. Greenland separately set a mackerel quota of 19,435 tonnes. Russia declared 67,548 tonnes, or 22.5% of the reference TAC. NEAFC members other than Russia have adopted measures intended to limit Russian catches in international waters to 1,495 tonnes from 28 August 2026. Political fragmentation therefore remains an additional supply risk.
Trade reports indicate that Greenland and the Faroe Islands have started fishing, while Iceland is entering the season in Week 30. Iceland’s 2026 mackerel fishing regulation was issued on 23 July. Early catches are reported to contain a high proportion of small fish with substantial feed in the stomach. This restricts the customer pool for whole-round material because many buyers require larger and cleaner fish, with the meat in the better shape for smoking purposes.
HG production is effectively absent at present moment. At current raw-material prices, yield loss and processing costs make HG difficult to sell to traditional canners and Eastern European smoking plants. Unless catch composition improves, early fish may require a discount rather than being priced against premium autumn and winter material.
Market side
Asia
Asia remains the main competitive arena for high-quality Atlantic mackerel. FAO reported that Asia-Pacific frozen mackerel imports increased by 8.87% in 2025 despite rising prices. Vietnam remained a leading importer, while South Korea was the dominant direct market for Norwegian mackerel in early 2026.
Asian buyers normally concentrate their strongest demand on high-fat autumn purse-seine fish, especially October catches. Competition for this reduced pool will be intense, and Europe, Africa and other markets may receive less premium material. Earlier summer fish are generally smaller and leaner than autumn mackerel, creating a clear difference between early-season volume and the specifications preferred by premium Asian customers.
However, Asia is not price-insensitive. Japan is already showing demand destruction and greater interest in lower-cost small pelagics, including Norwegian herring. Product is also increasingly processed through Vietnam and China because tariff structures make direct Japanese imports more expensive. The expected battle for October fish will therefore take place alongside stronger substitution and tighter retail margins.
Africa
North and West African markets remain important for whole frozen small pelagics, but they are highly sensitive to landed cost. At current Atlantic mackerel prices, many buyers cannot maintain established consumer price points. Norway’s three largest mackerel markets in the first half of 2026 were South Korea, the United States and Vietnam, indicating that limited supply is being directed toward markets able to pay more.
African buyers are therefore likely to continue purchsing more of jack mackerel, chub mackerel, herring and lower-priced size grades. Again, smaller sized atlantic mackerel business to Africa may recover if early small fish receives a meaningful price correction. Unchanged premium pricing still restricts the volumes, particularly in markets where mackerel must remain an affordable everyday protein rather than a premium product.
EU and Eastern Europe
The canning segment is accelerating its shift toward Chilean jack mackerel, Trachurus murphyi, and chub mackerel, including Scomber japonicus and Scomber colias. The change is not absolute: Norwegian mackerel fillet exports rose 53% in 2025, largely for European canned production. Nevertheless, European processors are now actively diversifying their raw-material base, which has also found its consequences in the contracts currently being signed by canners with the major supermarket chains.
One major European canner reported in March 2026 that it was increasingly using jack mackerel because of record Atlantic prices and limited supply. It also reported that jack mackerel prices had risen by more than 40% over the previous year, yet still the option is considered as better compared to atlantic mackerel. This shows the secondary effect of the Atlantic shortage: substitution is supporting prices across the wider small-pelagic category, not producing an unlimited pool of cheap alternatives.
Trade feedback indicates that chub mackerel and blue, or “English,” mackerel, Scomber australasicus, have also reached price levels that are beginning to hinder sales. Buyers that moved away from Atlantic mackerel are therefore finding that alternative species have become substantially more expensive as well.
The EU smoking industry has partly moved toward summer and early-autumn Atlantic mackerel. This helps secure raw material, but it may reduce consistency in fat level, meat condition and flavour compared with peak autumn and winter fish. If the finished product repeatedly changes in taste or texture, end-consumer demand may weaken. Eastern European smokers and canners face the same quality issue plus a stricter cost ceiling: HG Atlantic mackerel is currently difficult to fit into established retail prices everywhere.
Trade feedback also indicates that substantial stocks from the 2025 season and January 2026 remain in cold stores. High-fat mackerel is vulnerable to oxidative rancidity because its oils contain a high proportion of unsaturated fats. Distributors should closely monitor temperature history, glazing, packaging integrity and sensory condition. Older high-cost inventory may also limit new-season purchasing and prevent prices from rising simply because quotas are lower.
United States
Surprisingly, the United States was Norway’s second-largest mackerel market in the first half of 2026. It can compete for selected higher-value grades, but it is not an unlimited outlet as most of the fish is used for smoking for the Eastern European ethnic market. Higher replacement costs will eventually affect retail movement, while alternative species remain available. US demand may support premium and processed programs, but it is unlikely to absorb all fish rejected by more price-sensitive regions.
What to expect in upcoming weeks
The 2026 season is unprecedented in the modern Atlantic mackerel fishery. The quota reduction is severe, the international sharing framework remains incomplete, and the early signs are not promising, with a high proportion of small, feeding fish.
Prices may not move uniformly. Early small fish with limited processing options may need a correction, while large, clean and high-fat October purse-seine fish could remain firm or rise further because Asian competition will focus on a much smaller supply. Wider price differences by size, fat content, catch date, product form and storage age should be expected.
ICES is scheduled to issue its 2027 advice on 30 September 2026, followed by coastal-state negotiations during the autumn, including October. A further quota cut cannot be excluded if the stock assessment remains weak. The four-party agreement also calls for a long-term management strategy to be evaluated in time for these autumn consultations.
Buyers and processors should therefore manage early WR fish, HG requirements, premium autumn fish, alternative species and older inventories as separate positions. The decisive question is whether scarcity will continue supporting prices, or whether market resistance and carryover stocks will force a correction before the best autumn fish is landed.
SeaChef at the forefront of the Mackerel Season
Atlantic mackerel is one of SeaChef’s core products. By working closely with all major production plants, we ensure that our customers receive timely market information, practical forecasts and important industry updates as early as possible.
We hand pick Atlantic mackerel lots for different end purpose, specifications and markets, helping each customer secure the right product for their specific needs. Our sourcing is guided by a simple principle: the right fish for the right customer at the right time.
Contact us for current availability, specifications and offers.
